Sandviken 1–1 Mariehamn: Result & Stats

Sandviken

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mariehamn

3/21/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sandviken40%

×Draw26%

Mariehamn35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandvikenExpected goals in this matchMariehamn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.30

Sandviken

1.41

Mariehamn

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.25

creates per match

0.86

1.75

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Sandviken

1.25

Mariehamn

0.86

allows per match

Sandviken

1.75

Mariehamn

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandviken+0.00on par

Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken ↓

Mariehamn →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sandviken or draw

65%

Sandviken or Mariehamn

74%

Draw or Mariehamn

60%

Winning margin

Sandviken wins by 2+

19%

Mariehamn wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sandviken 1+ goals

76%

Sandviken 2+ goals

41%

Sandviken 3+ goals

17%

Mariehamn 1+ goals

73%

Mariehamn 2+ goals

37%

Mariehamn 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sandviken (draw refunded)

53%

Mariehamn (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sandviken at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken attack 1.25 + Mariehamn defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Mariehamn attack 0.86 + Sandviken defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sandviken scores more

40%

level

26%

Mariehamn scores more

35%

Sandviken at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff