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Sandviken vs Kjelsås II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Sandviken
Sandviken
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kjelsås II
Kjelsås II
5/22/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 7Stemmemyren kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandviken56%
×Draw21%
Kjelsås II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandviken
2.06
Kjelsås II
1.25

Sandviken creates 65% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sandviken
2.74
Kjelsås II
0.77

allows per match

Sandviken
1.74
Kjelsås II
1.38

finishing

Sandviken+0.00on par
Kjelsås II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken ↓

Kjelsås II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sandviken or draw
77%
Sandviken or Kjelsås II
79%
Draw or Kjelsås II
44%

Winning margin

Sandviken wins by 2+
33%
Kjelsås II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sandviken 1+ goals
87%
Sandviken 2+ goals
61%
Sandviken 3+ goals
34%
Kjelsås II 1+ goals
71%
Kjelsås II 2+ goals
36%
Kjelsås II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sandviken (draw refunded)
71%
Kjelsås II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.74 · 39 matches

Kjelsås II away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken attack 2.74 + Kjelsås II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.06

Kjelsås II attack 0.77 + Sandviken defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sandviken scores more
56%
level
21%
Kjelsås II scores more
23%

Sandviken at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandviken vs Kjelsås II

Sandviken and Kjelsås II drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stemmemyren kunstgressbane in Bergen.