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Sandviken vs Jonkopings Sodra — Svenska Cupen 2019

Sandviken
Sandviken
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
9/30/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundArena Jernvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sandviken50%
×Draw21%
Jonkopings Sodra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandviken
2.12
Jonkopings Sodra
1.57

Sandviken creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sandviken
1.36
Jonkopings Sodra
0.88

allows per match

Sandviken
2.27
Jonkopings Sodra
2.88

finishing

Sandviken+0.00on par
Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sandviken or draw
71%
Sandviken or Jonkopings Sodra
79%
Draw or Jonkopings Sodra
50%

Winning margin

Sandviken wins by 2+
29%
Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sandviken 1+ goals
88%
Sandviken 2+ goals
62%
Sandviken 3+ goals
35%
Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
79%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
46%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sandviken (draw refunded)
64%
Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken attack 1.36 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.12

Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.88 + Sandviken defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sandviken scores more
50%
level
21%
Jonkopings Sodra scores more
29%

Sandviken at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Sandviken 2–0 Jonkopings Sodra

Sandviken beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Jernvallen in Sandviken.