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Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall — Superettan 2026

Sandviken
Sandviken
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
5/27/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 10Jernvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sandviken48%
×Draw25%
GIF Sundsvall27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandviken
1.61
GIF Sundsvall
1.16

Sandviken creates 39% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 82 away

creates per match

Sandviken
1.77
GIF Sundsvall
1.11

allows per match

Sandviken
1.21
GIF Sundsvall
1.45

finishing

Sandviken+0.00on par
GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken ↓

GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sandviken or draw
73%
Sandviken or GIF Sundsvall
75%
Draw or GIF Sundsvall
52%

Winning margin

Sandviken wins by 2+
25%
GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sandviken 1+ goals
80%
Sandviken 2+ goals
48%
Sandviken 3+ goals
22%
GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
69%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
32%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sandviken (draw refunded)
63%
GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken attack 1.77 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.11 + Sandviken defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sandviken scores more
48%
level
25%
GIF Sundsvall scores more
27%

Sandviken at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall

GIF Sundsvall beat Sandviken 1-0 in Superettan on May 27, 2025.

The match was played at Jernvallen in Sandviken.