Sandviken 5–2 Assyriska FF: Result & Stats

Sandviken

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Assyriska FF

9/19/2021

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 21Arena Jernvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sandviken62%

×Draw19%

Assyriska FF18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandvikenExpected goals in this matchAssyriska FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.16

Sandviken

2.29

Assyriska FF

1.16

Sandviken creates 97% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 52 away

2.48

creates per match

1.21

1.11

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Sandviken

2.48

Assyriska FF

1.21

allows per match

Sandviken

1.11

Assyriska FF

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandviken+0.00on par

Assyriska FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken ↓

Assyriska FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sandviken or draw

82%

Sandviken or Assyriska FF

81%

Draw or Assyriska FF

38%

Winning margin

Sandviken wins by 2+

40%

Assyriska FF wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sandviken 1+ goals

90%

Sandviken 2+ goals

66%

Sandviken 3+ goals

40%

Assyriska FF 1+ goals

69%

Assyriska FF 2+ goals

32%

Assyriska FF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sandviken (draw refunded)

77%

Assyriska FF (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.11 · 75 matches

Assyriska FF away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken attack 2.48 + Assyriska FF defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.29

Assyriska FF attack 1.21 + Sandviken defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sandviken scores more

62%

level

19%

Assyriska FF scores more

18%

Sandviken at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff