Sandnes ULF 1–3 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Sandnes ULF

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

ODD Ballklubb

O. Sundgot 31' (pen)

F. Tewelde 65', 4'

S. Skjeldal 54'

4/11/2026

1. Division · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sandnes ULF44%

×Draw24%

ODD Ballklubb33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandnes ULFExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.45

Sandnes ULF

1.70

ODD Ballklubb

1.45

Sandnes ULF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 21 away

1.69

creates per match

1.33

1.57

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sandnes ULF

1.69

ODD Ballklubb

1.33

allows per match

Sandnes ULF

1.57

ODD Ballklubb

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes ULF ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sandnes ULF or draw

67%

Sandnes ULF or ODD Ballklubb

76%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

56%

Winning margin

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+

23%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals

82%

Sandnes ULF 2+ goals

51%

Sandnes ULF 3+ goals

24%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

77%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

42%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)

57%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes ULF at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes ULF attack 1.69 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.70

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.33 + Sandnes ULF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sandnes ULF scores more

44%

level

24%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

33%

Sandnes ULF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sandnes ULF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

F. Tewelde↳ S. Aas

19'

A. Bruseth← F. Botnen

28'

F. Jorgensen

31'

O. SundgotPenalty

38'

A. Nyhagen

50'

M. Sundberg

54'

S. Skjeldal↳ F. Tewelde

58'

S. Bojadzic

62'

D. Arifagic← O. Bardarson

65'

70'

72'

72'

78'

M. Adamu← N. Kojo

86'

H. Hardarson← F. Tewelde

90+3'

S. Hansen

Sandnes

ODD

1

2

5

6

13

⚽

Skjeldal

7

Jorgensen

8

Soderberg

23

▼

Kojo

28

⚽2A

▼

Tewelde

9

Bojadzic

18

A

1

2

28

3

▼

Botnen

17

Nyhagen

7

▼

Bardarson

8

Saugestad

15

Nsoni

23

▼

Berland

11

Sundberg

9

⚽

Sundgot

Manager: Arturo Cleveland

19'▲A. Bruseth←▼F. Botnen

62'▲D. Arifagic←▼O. Bardarson

70'▲A. Memed←▼E. Berland

Sandnes ULF substitutes

13Flolid18Bruseth22Arifagic25Debes26Tricholidis77Memed

Manager: Per Frandsen

78'▲M. Adamu←▼N. Kojo

86'▲H. Hardarson←▼F. Tewelde

ODD Ballklubb substitutes

12Lysgard15Skau16Adamu17Ambrose20Hardarson27Holte32Krosa

1. Division: Sandnes ULF 1–3 ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat Sandnes ULF 3-1 in 1. Division on April 11, 2026.

Goals: F. Tewelde (4', 65'), O. Sundgot (31' pen), S. Skjeldal (54').

Sandnes ULF vs ODD Ballklubb — 1. Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Sandnes ULF 1–3 ODD Ballklubb