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Sandnes ULF vs Floro — 1. Division 2018

Sandnes ULF
Sandnes ULF
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Floro
Floro
5/13/20181. Division1. Division · Round 7Sandnes Idrettspark (Sandnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sandnes ULF54%
×Draw23%
Floro24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes ULF
1.86
Floro
1.16

Sandnes ULF creates 60% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sandnes ULF
1.66
Floro
0.73

allows per match

Sandnes ULF
1.58
Floro
2.07

finishing

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes ULF ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sandnes ULF or draw
76%
Sandnes ULF or Floro
77%
Draw or Floro
46%

Winning margin

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+
30%
Floro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals
84%
Sandnes ULF 2+ goals
55%
Sandnes ULF 3+ goals
28%
Floro 1+ goals
69%
Floro 2+ goals
32%
Floro 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)
69%
Floro (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes ULF at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.58 · 112 matches

Floro away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes ULF attack 1.66 + Floro defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.86

Floro attack 0.73 + Sandnes ULF defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sandnes ULF scores more
54%
level
23%
Floro scores more
24%

Sandnes ULF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sandnes ULF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandnes ULF vs Floro

Sandnes ULF beat Floro 4-0 in 1. Division on May 13, 2018.

The match was played at Sandnes Idrettspark (Sandnes).