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Sandnes ULF vs Flekkerøy — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Sandnes ULF
Sandnes ULF
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Flekkerøy
Flekkerøy
S. Saugestad 90'
J. Tromsdal 49'
O. Sundgot 45'
6/14/20252. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandnes ULF74%
×Draw16%
Flekkerøy10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes ULF
2.55
Flekkerøy
0.83

Sandnes ULF creates 207% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sandnes ULF
3.08
Flekkerøy
1.12

allows per match

Sandnes ULF
0.54
Flekkerøy
2.02

finishing

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par
Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes ULF ↓

Flekkerøy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sandnes ULF or draw
90%
Sandnes ULF or Flekkerøy
84%
Draw or Flekkerøy
26%

Winning margin

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+
52%
Flekkerøy wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals
92%
Sandnes ULF 2+ goals
72%
Sandnes ULF 3+ goals
46%
Flekkerøy 1+ goals
56%
Flekkerøy 2+ goals
20%
Flekkerøy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)
88%
Flekkerøy (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes ULF at home — creates 3.08, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Flekkerøy away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes ULF attack 3.08 + Flekkerøy defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.55

Flekkerøy attack 1.12 + Sandnes ULF defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sandnes ULF scores more
74%
level
16%
Flekkerøy scores more
10%

Sandnes ULF at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sandnes ULF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
45'
O. Sundgot
49'
J. Tromsdal
56'
J. Kvernstuen
70'
E. Osenbroch
82'
84'
E. Gayi
90'
A. Cleveland
90'
S. Saugestad
Sandnes
Flekkerøy
A. Cleveland
Manager: A. Cleveland
S. Skeie
Manager: S. Skeie

Match Recap: Sandnes ULF vs Flekkerøy

Sandnes ULF beat Flekkerøy 3-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on June 14, 2025.

Goals: O. Sundgot (45'), J. Tromsdal (49'), S. Saugestad (90').

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.