Sandnes Ulf II 3–4 Stord: Result & Stats

Sandnes Ulf II

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Stord

D. Arifagic 74', 50'

D. A. Helle 67'

R. B. Ekeland 90', 62', 45+5'

L. Andal 37'

9/6/2025

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 19Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II29%

×Draw18%

Stord53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandnes Ulf IIExpected goals in this matchStord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

2.84

Sandnes Ulf II

2.12

Stord

2.84

Stord creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.54

creates per match

2.54

3.15

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II

1.54

Stord

2.54

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II

3.15

Stord

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Stord+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Stord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw

47%

Sandnes Ulf II or Stord

82%

Draw or Stord

71%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+

15%

Stord wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals

88%

Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals

62%

Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals

35%

Stord 1+ goals

94%

Stord 2+ goals

77%

Stord 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)

36%

Stord (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Stord away — creates 2.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.54 + Stord defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.12

Stord attack 2.54 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more

29%

level

18%

Stord scores more

53%

Stord at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

L. Andal

45+5'

R. B. Ekeland

50'

D. Arifagic

62'

R. B. Ekeland

67'

D. A. Helle

74'

D. Arifagic

77'

E. Debes

77'

E. Debes

90'

R. B. Ekeland

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff