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Sandnes Ulf II vs Sandefjord II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Sandefjord II
Sandefjord II
10/20/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 25Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II50%
×Draw19%
Sandefjord II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes Ulf II
2.62
Sandefjord II
2.08

Sandnes Ulf II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II
2.46
Sandefjord II
2.15

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II
2.00
Sandefjord II
2.77

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par
Sandefjord II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Sandefjord II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw
69%
Sandnes Ulf II or Sandefjord II
81%
Draw or Sandefjord II
50%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
31%
Sandefjord II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
93%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
73%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
48%
Sandefjord II 1+ goals
87%
Sandefjord II 2+ goals
61%
Sandefjord II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
61%
Sandefjord II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Sandefjord II away — creates 2.15, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 2.46 + Sandefjord II defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.62

Sandefjord II attack 2.15 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more
50%
level
19%
Sandefjord II scores more
31%

Sandnes Ulf II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sandnes Ulf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Sandnes Ulf II 1–5 Sandefjord II

Sandefjord II beat Sandnes Ulf II 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.