Sandnes Ulf II 4–0 Mandalskameratene

Sandnes Ulf II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mandalskameratene

5/25/2024

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 8Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II60%

×Draw18%

Mandalskameratene22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandnes Ulf IIExpected goals in this matchMandalskameratene

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

1.69

Sandnes Ulf II

2.80

Mandalskameratene

1.69

Sandnes Ulf II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.46

creates per match

1.38

2.00

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II

2.46

Mandalskameratene

1.38

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II

2.00

Mandalskameratene

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Mandalskameratene+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Mandalskameratene →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw

78%

Sandnes Ulf II or Mandalskameratene

82%

Draw or Mandalskameratene

40%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+

40%

Mandalskameratene wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals

94%

Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals

76%

Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals

52%

Mandalskameratene 1+ goals

82%

Mandalskameratene 2+ goals

50%

Mandalskameratene 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)

73%

Mandalskameratene (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Mandalskameratene away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 2.46 + Mandalskameratene defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.80

Mandalskameratene attack 1.38 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more

60%

level

18%

Mandalskameratene scores more

22%

Sandnes Ulf II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sandnes Ulf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff