Sandnes Ulf II 4–3 Lysekloster: Result & Stats

Sandnes Ulf II

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Lysekloster

7/2/2022

3. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 13Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II33%

×Draw20%

Lysekloster47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandnes Ulf IIExpected goals in this matchLysekloster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.31

Sandnes Ulf II

1.92

Lysekloster

2.31

Lysekloster creates 20% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

2.38

creates per match

2.77

1.85

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II

2.38

Lysekloster

2.77

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II

1.85

Lysekloster

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Lysekloster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Lysekloster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw

53%

Sandnes Ulf II or Lysekloster

80%

Draw or Lysekloster

67%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+

17%

Lysekloster wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals

85%

Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals

57%

Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals

30%

Lysekloster 1+ goals

90%

Lysekloster 2+ goals

67%

Lysekloster 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)

41%

Lysekloster (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

Lysekloster away — creates 2.77, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 2.38 + Lysekloster defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.92

Lysekloster attack 2.77 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more

33%

level

20%

Lysekloster scores more

47%

Lysekloster at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lysekloster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff