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Sandnes Ulf II vs Djerv — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Djerv
Djerv
E. Osenbroch 45'
C. Landu-Landu 39'
A. Ravndal 22'
M. Memic 77'
S. Vaga 51'
9/3/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 19Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II43%
×Draw21%
Djerv37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes Ulf II
2.07
Djerv
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II
2.38
Djerv
1.97

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II
1.85
Djerv
1.76

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par
Djerv+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Djerv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw
63%
Sandnes Ulf II or Djerv
79%
Draw or Djerv
57%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
24%
Djerv wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
87%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
61%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
34%
Djerv 1+ goals
85%
Djerv 2+ goals
57%
Djerv 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
54%
Djerv (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

Djerv away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 2.38 + Djerv defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.07

Djerv attack 1.97 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more
43%
level
21%
Djerv scores more
37%

Sandnes Ulf II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sandnes Ulf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Ravndal
39'
C. Landu-Landu
45'
E. Osenbroch
51'
S. Vaga
77'
M. Memic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Sandnes Ulf II 3–2 Djerv

Sandnes Ulf II beat Djerv 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 3, 2022.

Goals: A. Ravndal (22'), C. Landu-Landu (39'), E. Osenbroch (45'), S. Vaga (51'), M. Memic (77').

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.