Sandnes Ulf II 1–3 Brodd: Result & Stats

Sandnes Ulf II

FT

1 – 3

Brodd

5/21/2023

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 7Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II44%

×Draw23%

Brodd34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandnes Ulf IIExpected goals in this matchBrodd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.56

Sandnes Ulf II

1.80

Brodd

1.56

Sandnes Ulf II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

2.38

creates per match

1.28

1.85

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II

2.38

Brodd

1.28

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II

1.85

Brodd

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Brodd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Brodd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw

66%

Sandnes Ulf II or Brodd

77%

Draw or Brodd

56%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+

23%

Brodd wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals

83%

Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals

54%

Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals

27%

Brodd 1+ goals

79%

Brodd 2+ goals

46%

Brodd 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)

56%

Brodd (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

Brodd away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 2.38 + Brodd defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.80

Brodd attack 1.28 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more

44%

level

23%

Brodd scores more

34%

Sandnes Ulf II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sandnes Ulf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff