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Brodd vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Brodd
Brodd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
8/2/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 14Midjord kunstgras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brodd68%
×Draw16%
Sandnes Ulf II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brodd
2.88
Sandnes Ulf II
1.34

Brodd creates 115% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Brodd
2.38
Sandnes Ulf II
0.92

allows per match

Brodd
1.77
Sandnes Ulf II
3.38

finishing

Brodd+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brodd ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Brodd or draw
84%
Brodd or Sandnes Ulf II
84%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
32%

Winning margin

Brodd wins by 2+
48%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brodd 1+ goals
94%
Brodd 2+ goals
78%
Brodd 3+ goals
54%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
74%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
39%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Brodd (draw refunded)
81%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brodd at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brodd attack 2.38 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.88

Sandnes Ulf II attack 0.92 + Brodd defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Brodd scores more
68%
level
16%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
16%

Brodd at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Brodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Brodd 1–0 Sandnes Ulf II

Brodd beat Sandnes Ulf II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Midjord kunstgras in Stavanger.