Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sandnes Ulf II vs Bremnes — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bremnes
Bremnes
9/2/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 18Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II63%
×Draw17%
Bremnes20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes Ulf II
2.75
Bremnes
1.52

Sandnes Ulf II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II
2.38
Bremnes
1.19

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II
1.85
Bremnes
3.12

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par
Bremnes+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Bremnes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw
80%
Sandnes Ulf II or Bremnes
83%
Draw or Bremnes
37%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
42%
Bremnes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
93%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
75%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
51%
Bremnes 1+ goals
78%
Bremnes 2+ goals
45%
Bremnes 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
76%
Bremnes (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

Bremnes away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 2.38 + Bremnes defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.75

Bremnes attack 1.19 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more
63%
level
17%
Bremnes scores more
20%

Sandnes Ulf II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sandnes Ulf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Sandnes Ulf II 2–1 Bremnes

Sandnes Ulf II beat Bremnes 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.