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Sandi vs Nimba Kwado — LFA First Division 2020

Sandi
Sandi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nimba Kwado
Nimba Kwado
9/10/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 2Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sandi29%
×Draw25%
Nimba Kwado46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandi
1.21
Nimba Kwado
1.58

Nimba Kwado creates 31% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 50 away

creates per match

Sandi
1.12
Nimba Kwado
1.16

allows per match

Sandi
2.00
Nimba Kwado
1.30

finishing

Sandi+0.00on par
Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandi ↓

Nimba Kwado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sandi or draw
54%
Sandi or Nimba Kwado
75%
Draw or Nimba Kwado
71%

Winning margin

Sandi wins by 2+
12%
Nimba Kwado wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sandi 1+ goals
70%
Sandi 2+ goals
34%
Sandi 3+ goals
12%
Nimba Kwado 1+ goals
79%
Nimba Kwado 2+ goals
47%
Nimba Kwado 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sandi (draw refunded)
39%
Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandi at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.00 · 25 matches

Nimba Kwado away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandi attack 1.12 + Nimba Kwado defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nimba Kwado attack 1.16 + Sandi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sandi scores more
29%
level
25%
Nimba Kwado scores more
46%

Nimba Kwado at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandi vs Nimba Kwado

Nimba Kwado beat Sandi 1-0 in LFA First Division on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.