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Sandi vs LPRC Oilers — LFA First Division 2020

Sandi
Sandi
FT
0 – 1
LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
3/4/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 18Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sandi25%
×Draw23%
LPRC Oilers52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandi
1.18
LPRC Oilers
1.80

LPRC Oilers creates 53% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 75 away

creates per match

Sandi
1.12
LPRC Oilers
1.60

allows per match

Sandi
2.00
LPRC Oilers
1.24

finishing

Sandi+0.00on par
LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandi ↓

LPRC Oilers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sandi or draw
48%
Sandi or LPRC Oilers
77%
Draw or LPRC Oilers
75%

Winning margin

Sandi wins by 2+
10%
LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sandi 1+ goals
69%
Sandi 2+ goals
33%
Sandi 3+ goals
12%
LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
83%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
54%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Sandi (draw refunded)
33%
LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandi at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.00 · 25 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandi attack 1.12 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + Sandi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sandi scores more
25%
level
23%
LPRC Oilers scores more
52%

LPRC Oilers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Sandi 0–1 LPRC Oilers

LPRC Oilers beat Sandi 1-0 in LFA First Division on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.