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Sandi vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Sandi
Sandi
FT
2 – 1
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
10/9/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 6Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sandi37%
×Draw25%
Invincible Eleven38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandi
1.44
Invincible Eleven
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sandi
1.12
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

Sandi
2.00
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

Sandi+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandi ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sandi or draw
62%
Sandi or Invincible Eleven
75%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
63%

Winning margin

Sandi wins by 2+
17%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sandi 1+ goals
76%
Sandi 2+ goals
42%
Sandi 3+ goals
18%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
77%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
42%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sandi (draw refunded)
50%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandi at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.00 · 25 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandi attack 1.12 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Sandi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sandi scores more
37%
level
25%
Invincible Eleven scores more
38%

Invincible Eleven at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Invincible Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandi vs Invincible Eleven

Sandi beat Invincible Eleven 2-1 in LFA First Division on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.