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Sandi vs Heaven Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Sandi
Sandi
FT
3 – 0
Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
12/30/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 8Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sandi28%
×Draw23%
Heaven Eleven48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandi
1.31
Heaven Eleven
1.77

Heaven Eleven creates 35% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sandi
1.12
Heaven Eleven
1.55

allows per match

Sandi
2.00
Heaven Eleven
1.50

finishing

Sandi+0.00on par
Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandi ↓

Heaven Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sandi or draw
52%
Sandi or Heaven Eleven
77%
Draw or Heaven Eleven
72%

Winning margin

Sandi wins by 2+
12%
Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sandi 1+ goals
73%
Sandi 2+ goals
38%
Sandi 3+ goals
14%
Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
83%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
53%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sandi (draw refunded)
37%
Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandi at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.00 · 25 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandi attack 1.12 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + Sandi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sandi scores more
28%
level
23%
Heaven Eleven scores more
48%

Heaven Eleven at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandi vs Heaven Eleven

Sandi beat Heaven Eleven 3-0 in LFA First Division on December 30, 2021.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.