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Sandhausen U19 vs Stuttgart U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Sandhausen U19
Sandhausen U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Stuttgart U19
Stuttgart U19
2/11/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16Walter-Reinhard-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sandhausen U1926%
×Draw20%
Stuttgart U1954%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen U19
1.60
Stuttgart U19
2.32

Stuttgart U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 71 away

creates per match

Sandhausen U19
1.87
Stuttgart U19
2.75

allows per match

Sandhausen U19
1.89
Stuttgart U19
1.34

finishing

Sandhausen U19+0.00on par
Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Sandhausen U19 or draw
46%
Sandhausen U19 or Stuttgart U19
80%
Draw or Stuttgart U19
74%

Winning margin

Sandhausen U19 wins by 2+
12%
Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Sandhausen U19 1+ goals
80%
Sandhausen U19 2+ goals
47%
Sandhausen U19 3+ goals
22%
Stuttgart U19 1+ goals
90%
Stuttgart U19 2+ goals
67%
Stuttgart U19 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen U19 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen U19 attack 1.87 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.60

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.75 + Sandhausen U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sandhausen U19 scores more
26%
level
20%
Stuttgart U19 scores more
54%

Stuttgart U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Sandhausen U19 0–3 Stuttgart U19

Stuttgart U19 beat Sandhausen U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Walter-Reinhard-Stadion in Sandhausen.