Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sandhausen U19 vs Schott Mainz U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Sandhausen U19
Sandhausen U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Schott Mainz U19
Schott Mainz U19
4/25/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sandhausen U1961%
×Draw18%
Schott Mainz U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen U19
2.59
Schott Mainz U19
1.48

Sandhausen U19 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sandhausen U19
1.87
Schott Mainz U19
1.08

allows per match

Sandhausen U19
1.89
Schott Mainz U19
3.31

finishing

Sandhausen U19+0.00on par
Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen U19 ↓

Schott Mainz U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Sandhausen U19 or draw
79%
Sandhausen U19 or Schott Mainz U19
82%
Draw or Schott Mainz U19
39%

Winning margin

Sandhausen U19 wins by 2+
40%
Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sandhausen U19 1+ goals
92%
Sandhausen U19 2+ goals
73%
Sandhausen U19 3+ goals
47%
Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals
77%
Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals
43%
Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen U19 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Schott Mainz U19 away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen U19 attack 1.87 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.59

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.08 + Sandhausen U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sandhausen U19 scores more
61%
level
18%
Schott Mainz U19 scores more
21%

Sandhausen U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sandhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Sandhausen
Schott
I. Erceg
Manager: I. Erceg
P. Staegemann
Manager: P. Staegemann

U19 Bundesliga: Sandhausen U19 2–1 Schott Mainz U19

Sandhausen U19 beat Schott Mainz U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 25, 2026.