Sandhausen II 1–4 SV Linx: Result & Stats

Sandhausen II

FT

1 – 4

SV Linx

9/16/2020

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 6SV Sandhausen Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sandhausen II39%

×Draw20%

SV Linx41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandhausen IIExpected goals in this matchSV Linx

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.17

Sandhausen II

2.13

SV Linx

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

1.67

creates per match

1.52

2.83

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Sandhausen II

1.67

SV Linx

1.52

allows per match

Sandhausen II

2.83

SV Linx

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandhausen II+0.00on par

SV Linx+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen II ↓

SV Linx →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Sandhausen II or draw

59%

Sandhausen II or SV Linx

80%

Draw or SV Linx

61%

Winning margin

Sandhausen II wins by 2+

22%

SV Linx wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sandhausen II 1+ goals

88%

Sandhausen II 2+ goals

63%

Sandhausen II 3+ goals

35%

SV Linx 1+ goals

89%

SV Linx 2+ goals

64%

SV Linx 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)

49%

SV Linx (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

SV Linx away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen II attack 1.67 + SV Linx defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.13

SV Linx attack 1.52 + Sandhausen II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sandhausen II scores more

39%

level

20%

SV Linx scores more

41%

SV Linx at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SV Linx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff