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Sandhausen II vs Ilshofen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
FT
1 – 2
Ilshofen
Ilshofen
10/10/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 11SV Sandhausen Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sandhausen II44%
×Draw20%
Ilshofen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen II
2.25
Ilshofen
2.02

Sandhausen II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sandhausen II
1.67
Ilshofen
1.20

allows per match

Sandhausen II
2.83
Ilshofen
2.84

finishing

Sandhausen II+0.00on par
Ilshofen+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen II ↓

Ilshofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Sandhausen II or draw
64%
Sandhausen II or Ilshofen
80%
Draw or Ilshofen
56%

Winning margin

Sandhausen II wins by 2+
26%
Ilshofen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sandhausen II 1+ goals
89%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
65%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
39%
Ilshofen 1+ goals
87%
Ilshofen 2+ goals
60%
Ilshofen 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
55%
Ilshofen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Ilshofen away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen II attack 1.67 + Ilshofen defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.25

Ilshofen attack 1.20 + Sandhausen II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sandhausen II scores more
44%
level
20%
Ilshofen scores more
36%

Sandhausen II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sandhausen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Sandhausen II 1–2 Ilshofen

Ilshofen beat Sandhausen II 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at SV Sandhausen Kunstrasenplatz in Sandhausen.