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Sandhausen II vs FC Rielasingen-Arlen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
CANC
13:00
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
12/5/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 19Walter-Reinhard-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sandhausen II37%
×Draw21%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen II
1.90
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sandhausen II
1.67
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.26

allows per match

Sandhausen II
2.83
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
2.12

finishing

Sandhausen II+0.00on par
FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen II ↓

FC Rielasingen-Arlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Sandhausen II or draw
58%
Sandhausen II or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
79%
Draw or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
63%

Winning margin

Sandhausen II wins by 2+
19%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sandhausen II 1+ goals
85%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
56%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
29%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
87%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
60%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
47%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen II attack 1.67 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.90

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.26 + Sandhausen II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sandhausen II scores more
37%
level
21%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
42%

FC Rielasingen-Arlen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Rielasingen-Arlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sandhausen II vs FC Rielasingen-Arlen — Match Preview

Sandhausen II face FC Rielasingen-Arlen on December 5, 2020 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sandhausen II host FC Rielasingen-Arlen at Walter-Reinhard-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.