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Sandhausen II vs Astoria Walldorf II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
CANC
13:00
Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
3/20/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 24SV Sandhausen Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sandhausen II34%
×Draw21%
Astoria Walldorf II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen II
1.81
Astoria Walldorf II
2.10

Astoria Walldorf II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sandhausen II
1.67
Astoria Walldorf II
1.36

allows per match

Sandhausen II
2.83
Astoria Walldorf II
1.96

finishing

Sandhausen II+0.00on par
Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen II ↓

Astoria Walldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Sandhausen II or draw
55%
Sandhausen II or Astoria Walldorf II
79%
Draw or Astoria Walldorf II
66%

Winning margin

Sandhausen II wins by 2+
17%
Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sandhausen II 1+ goals
84%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
54%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
27%
Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
88%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
62%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
43%
Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Astoria Walldorf II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen II attack 1.67 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.36 + Sandhausen II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sandhausen II scores more
34%
level
21%
Astoria Walldorf II scores more
45%

Astoria Walldorf II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Astoria Walldorf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sandhausen II host Astoria Walldorf II

March 20, 2021: Sandhausen II take on Astoria Walldorf II in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sandhausen II host Astoria Walldorf II at SV Sandhausen Kunstrasenplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.