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Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Sandefjord
Sandefjord
CANC
00:00
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
10/16/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 25Sandefjord Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sandefjord51%
×Draw23%
ODD Ballklubb26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandefjord
1.79
ODD Ballklubb
1.21

Sandefjord creates 48% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sandefjord
1.35
ODD Ballklubb
0.98

allows per match

Sandefjord
1.44
ODD Ballklubb
2.22

finishing

Sandefjord+0.40scores more
ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sandefjord or draw
74%
Sandefjord or ODD Ballklubb
77%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
49%

Winning margin

Sandefjord wins by 2+
28%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sandefjord 1+ goals
83%
Sandefjord 2+ goals
53%
Sandefjord 3+ goals
26%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
70%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
34%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord (draw refunded)
66%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord attack 1.35 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Sandefjord defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sandefjord scores more
51%
level
23%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
26%

Sandefjord at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sandefjord face ODD Ballklubb (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Sandefjord hosting ODD Ballklubb. Match starts October 16, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sandefjord host ODD Ballklubb at Sandefjord Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.