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ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Sandefjord
Sandefjord
S. Owusu 86'
F. Jørgensen 43'
F. Tewelde 32'
D. Al-Saed 44'
F. Nyenetue 15'
9/3/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 21Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb40%
×Draw24%
Sandefjord36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.56
Sandefjord
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 35 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.35
Sandefjord
1.37

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.55
Sandefjord
1.76

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.10scores more
Sandefjord+0.17scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Sandefjord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
64%
ODD Ballklubb or Sandefjord
76%
Draw or Sandefjord
60%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
20%
Sandefjord wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
79%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
46%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
21%
Sandefjord 1+ goals
77%
Sandefjord 2+ goals
43%
Sandefjord 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
53%
Sandefjord (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Sandefjord away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.35 + Sandefjord defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
40%
level
24%
Sandefjord scores more
36%

ODD Ballklubb at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
F. JørgensenODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb · F
8.3

Match Events

15'
F. Nyenetue↳ D. Al-Saed
20'
Filip Rønningen Jørgensen
32'
F. Tewelde↳ F. Jørgensen
43'
F. Jørgensen↳ S. Owusu
44'
D. Al-Saed↳ F. Ottosson
46'
P. Nygaard Klausen← P. Kristian Bråtveit
57'
Danilo Al-Saed
64'
K. Ayer← S. Mørk
69'
Z. Mugeese← O. Midtskogen
69'
M. Ingebrigtsen← T. Svendsen
77'
L. Hien← F. Tewelde
80'
J. Dunsby← D. Al-Saed
80'
A. Tveter← F. Nyenetue
80'
F. Pedersen← F. Pålerud
86'
S. Owusu
87'
Y. Chaib← G. Koomson
88'
D. Tomas← F. Jørgensen
90+2'
Leon Hien
90+1'
Leonard Owusu

Possession

51%ODD

Shots

12ODD

Pass accuracy

50%ODD

Statistics

ODDSandefjord
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots11
1.36Expected Goals (xG)1.18
5Corners2
10Fouls6
Shots
12Total Shots11
6On Target6
3Off Target2
3Blocked3
6Inside Box8
6Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
372Total Passes362
311Accurate Passes300
84%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls6
3Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord

ODD Ballklubb beat Sandefjord 3-2 in Eliteserien on September 3, 2023.

Goals: F. Nyenetue (15'), F. Tewelde (32'), F. Jørgensen (43'), D. Al-Saed (44'), S. Owusu (86').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.