Sandefjord 1–1 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Sandefjord

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

Marc Vales 84'

M. Bakenga 54'

12/13/2020

Eliteserien · Round 26Sandefjord Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sandefjord51%

×Draw23%

ODD Ballklubb26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandefjordExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.21

Sandefjord

1.79

ODD Ballklubb

1.21

Sandefjord creates 48% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 18 away

1.35

creates per match

0.98

1.44

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Sandefjord

1.35

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Sandefjord

1.44

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Sandefjord+0.40scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sandefjord or draw

74%

Sandefjord or ODD Ballklubb

77%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

49%

Winning margin

Sandefjord wins by 2+

28%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sandefjord 1+ goals

83%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

53%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

26%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

70%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

34%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

66%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord attack 1.35 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Sandefjord defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sandefjord scores more

51%

level

23%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

26%

Sandefjord at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. Vega

Sandefjord · F

7.9

Match Events

19'

Mushaga Bakenga

44'

Emil Palsson

46'

Rufo Herraiz← E. Brenden

54'

M. Bakenga

59'

V. Jonsson← B. Wembangomo

59'

L. Markmanrud← E. Pálsson

64'

E. Rashani← M. Bakenga

78'

S. Foss← K. Hansen

80'

T. Lauritsen← M. Kaasa

84'

O. Ugwuadu← J. Kitolano

84'

Marc Vales

88'

G. Gibson← S. Gussiås

90'

Odin Luras Bjortuft

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SandefjordODD

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots7

4Corners3

14Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target4

5Off Target1

3Blocked2

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box0

Passing

54%Possession46%

424Total Passes374

335Accurate Passes278

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2