Sandefjord 1–1 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Sandefjord

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

Rufo Herraiz 39'

J. Samuelsen 52'

9/29/2018

Eliteserien · Round 24Komplett.no Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sandefjord51%

×Draw23%

ODD Ballklubb26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandefjordExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.21

Sandefjord

1.78

ODD Ballklubb

1.21

Sandefjord creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

1.33

creates per match

0.98

1.45

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Sandefjord

1.33

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Sandefjord

1.45

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Sandefjord+0.37scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sandefjord or draw

74%

Sandefjord or ODD Ballklubb

77%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

49%

Winning margin

Sandefjord wins by 2+

28%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sandefjord 1+ goals

83%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

53%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

26%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

70%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

34%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

66%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord attack 1.33 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.78

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Sandefjord defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sandefjord scores more

51%

level

23%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

26%

Sandefjord at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Rufo Herraiz

Sandefjord · F

7.3

Match Events

9'

M. Ofkir← M. Fellah

39'

Rufo Herraiz↳ P. Engblom

46'

S. Mladenovic← B. Njie

52'

J. Samuelsen

69'

E. Mjelde← P. Engblom

73'

M. Broberg← T. Børven

78'

G. Gibson← Enric Vallès

84'

Rufo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SandefjordODD

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots7

4Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots7

5On Target2

2Off Target3

3Blocked2

5Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

456Total Passes419

358Accurate Passes314

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

5Offsides6

Match Recap: Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb

Sandefjord and ODD Ballklubb drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on September 29, 2018.

Goals: Rufo Herraiz (39'), J. Samuelsen (52').

Sandefjord controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Komplett.no Arena in Sandefjord.

Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sandefjord vs ODD Ballklubb