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Sandefjord vs Karpaty — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sandefjord
Sandefjord
CANC
13:00
Karpaty
Karpaty
2/23/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sandefjord55%
×Draw28%
Karpaty17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandefjord
1.40
Karpaty
0.64

Sandefjord creates 119% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sandefjord
1.80
Karpaty
0.67

allows per match

Sandefjord
0.60
Karpaty
1.00

finishing

Sandefjord+0.00on par
Karpaty+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord ↓

Karpaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sandefjord or draw
83%
Sandefjord or Karpaty
72%
Draw or Karpaty
45%

Winning margin

Sandefjord wins by 2+
28%
Karpaty wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sandefjord 1+ goals
75%
Sandefjord 2+ goals
41%
Sandefjord 3+ goals
17%
Karpaty 1+ goals
47%
Karpaty 2+ goals
14%
Karpaty 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord (draw refunded)
76%
Karpaty (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Karpaty away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord attack 1.80 + Karpaty defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Karpaty attack 0.67 + Sandefjord defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sandefjord scores more
55%
level
28%
Karpaty scores more
17%

Sandefjord at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sandefjord host Karpaty

February 23, 2024: Sandefjord take on Karpaty in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sandefjord host Karpaty at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.