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Sandefjord vs jerv — Eliteserien 2026

Sandefjord
Sandefjord
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
jerv
jerv
10/16/2022EliteserienEliteserien · Round 26Release Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sandefjord57%
×Draw21%
jerv21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandefjord
2.06
jerv
1.18

Sandefjord creates 75% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sandefjord
1.45
jerv
1.00

allows per match

Sandefjord
1.35
jerv
2.67

finishing

Sandefjord+0.00on par
jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord ↓

jerv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sandefjord or draw
79%
Sandefjord or jerv
79%
Draw or jerv
43%

Winning margin

Sandefjord wins by 2+
35%
jerv wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sandefjord 1+ goals
87%
Sandefjord 2+ goals
61%
Sandefjord 3+ goals
34%
jerv 1+ goals
69%
jerv 2+ goals
33%
jerv 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord (draw refunded)
73%
jerv (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.35 · 105 matches

jerv away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord attack 1.45 + jerv defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.06

jerv attack 1.00 + Sandefjord defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sandefjord scores more
57%
level
21%
jerv scores more
21%

Sandefjord at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandefjord vs jerv

jerv beat Sandefjord 2-1 in Eliteserien on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Release Arena in Sandefjord.