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Sandefjord II vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Sandefjord II
Sandefjord II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
7/24/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 12Gamle Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandefjord II60%
×Draw18%
Mjøndalen II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandefjord II
2.70
Mjøndalen II
1.60

Sandefjord II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sandefjord II
2.62
Mjøndalen II
1.08

allows per match

Sandefjord II
2.12
Mjøndalen II
2.77

finishing

Sandefjord II+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord II ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Sandefjord II or draw
78%
Sandefjord II or Mjøndalen II
82%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
40%

Winning margin

Sandefjord II wins by 2+
40%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sandefjord II 1+ goals
93%
Sandefjord II 2+ goals
75%
Sandefjord II 3+ goals
50%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
80%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
47%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord II (draw refunded)
73%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord II at home — creates 2.62, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord II attack 2.62 + Mjøndalen II defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.70

Mjøndalen II attack 1.08 + Sandefjord II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sandefjord II scores more
60%
level
18%
Mjøndalen II scores more
22%

Sandefjord II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sandefjord II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Sandefjord II 3–1 Mjøndalen II

Sandefjord II beat Mjøndalen II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on July 24, 2023.

The match was played at Gamle Stadion in Sandefjord.