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Sandefjord II vs Gneist — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Sandefjord II
Sandefjord II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Gneist
Gneist
E. Jevard-Skuland 57'
V. Holtung 11'
H. B. Skretteberg 6'
O. Majewski 76'
H. Brosvik Holst 37'
T. Sagstad 34'
4/16/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 3Jotun Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sandefjord II40%
×Draw19%
Gneist41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandefjord II
2.44
Gneist
2.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sandefjord II
2.44
Gneist
2.71

allows per match

Sandefjord II
2.22
Gneist
2.43

finishing

Sandefjord II+0.00on par
Gneist+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord II ↓

Gneist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Sandefjord II or draw
59%
Sandefjord II or Gneist
81%
Draw or Gneist
60%

Winning margin

Sandefjord II wins by 2+
23%
Gneist wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sandefjord II 1+ goals
91%
Sandefjord II 2+ goals
70%
Sandefjord II 3+ goals
43%
Gneist 1+ goals
91%
Gneist 2+ goals
70%
Gneist 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord II (draw refunded)
50%
Gneist (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

Gneist away — creates 2.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord II attack 2.44 + Gneist defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.44

Gneist attack 2.71 + Sandefjord II defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sandefjord II scores more
40%
level
19%
Gneist scores more
41%

Gneist at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gneist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
H. B. Skretteberg
11'
V. Holtung
34'
T. Sagstad
37'
H. Brosvik Holst
57'
E. Jevard-Skuland
76'
O. Majewski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Sandefjord II 3–3 Gneist

Sandefjord II and Gneist drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 16, 2025.

Goals: H. B. Skretteberg (6'), V. Holtung (11'), T. Sagstad (34'), H. Brosvik Holst (37'), E. Jevard-Skuland (57'), O. Majewski (76').

The match was played at Jotun Arena in Sandefjord.