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Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Wiązownica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wiązownica
Wiązownica
8/31/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz65%
×Draw19%
Wiązownica15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
2.23
Wiązownica
0.98

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 128% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
2.29
Wiązownica
1.26

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.71
Wiązownica
2.17

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par
Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Wiązownica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw
85%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Wiązownica
81%
Draw or Wiązownica
35%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
42%
Wiązownica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
89%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
65%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
38%
Wiązownica 1+ goals
62%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
26%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
81%
Wiązownica (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 2.29 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.23

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
65%
level
19%
Wiązownica scores more
15%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Wiązownica

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Wiązownica 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka in Nowy Sącz.