Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–0 Olimpia Grudziądz

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpia Grudziądz

11/18/2023

II Liga - East · Round 18Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz41%

×Draw26%

Olimpia Grudziądz33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandecja Nowy SączExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Grudziądz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.25

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.44

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.25

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

1.29

creates per match

1.26

1.24

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.29

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.26

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.24

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw

67%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Olimpia Grudziądz

74%

Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz

59%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

20%

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

76%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

42%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

18%

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

71%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

36%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

56%

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.44

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

41%

level

26%

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

33%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff