Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–1 Górnik Polkowice

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Górnik Polkowice

D. Chmiel 28'

M. Piątkowski 51'

11/28/2021

I Liga · Round 19Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz51%

×Draw24%

Górnik Polkowice24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandecja Nowy SączExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.08

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.68

Górnik Polkowice

1.08

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 56% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

1.00

1.16

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.29

Górnik Polkowice

1.00

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.16

Górnik Polkowice

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw

76%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Górnik Polkowice

76%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

49%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

28%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

81%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

50%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

24%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

66%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

29%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

68%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Górnik Polkowice defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.00 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

51%

level

24%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

24%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

D. ChmielGoal Disallowed

28'

D. Chmiel

42'

R. JanickiGoal Disallowed

46'

B. Żołądź← A. Purzycki

46'

E. Sobków← M. Bancewicz

49'

51'

67'

74'

75'

M. Małkowski← D. Chmiel

78'

B. Zoladz

79'

K. Wacławczyk← M. Szuszkiewicz

80'

S. Rudol

84'

R. Karmelita← M. Pałaszewski

85'

D. Krakowski

86'

B. Kasprzak← S. Dikov

90+1'

E. Maissa Fall

90+4'

D. Sovsic

Sandecja

Górnik

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Dudek

74'▲D. Wolny←▼R. Janicki

75'▲M. Małkowski←▼D. Chmiel

86'▲B. Kasprzak←▼S. Dikov

Sandecja Nowy Sącz substitutes

WolnyMałkowskiKasprzakBastaWawszczykZychOsyraWalskiTokarz

Manager: P. Barylski

46'▲B. Żołądź←▼A. Purzycki

46'▲E. Sobków←▼M. Bancewicz

79'▲K. Wacławczyk←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

84'▲R. Karmelita←▼M. Pałaszewski

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

ŻołądźSobkówWacławczykKarmelitaBaranowskiFurtakMagdziakOpałaczSowiński

I Liga: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–1 Górnik Polkowice

Sandecja Nowy Sącz and Górnik Polkowice drew 1-1 in I Liga on November 28, 2021.

Goals: D. Chmiel (28'), M. Piątkowski (51').

The match was played at Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka in Nowy Sącz.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Polkowice — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–1 Górnik Polkowice