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Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 vs Widzew Łódź U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Widzew Łódź U19
Widzew Łódź U19
4/14/2024Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U1949%
×Draw20%
Widzew Łódź U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
2.27
Widzew Łódź U19
1.80

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
1.67
Widzew Łódź U19
1.27

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
2.33
Widzew Łódź U19
2.87

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19+0.00on par
Widzew Łódź U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 ↓

Widzew Łódź U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 or draw
69%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 or Widzew Łódź U19
80%
Draw or Widzew Łódź U19
51%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 wins by 2+
29%
Widzew Łódź U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 1+ goals
90%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 2+ goals
66%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 3+ goals
39%
Widzew Łódź U19 1+ goals
83%
Widzew Łódź U19 2+ goals
54%
Widzew Łódź U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Widzew Łódź U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Widzew Łódź U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 attack 1.67 + Widzew Łódź U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.27

Widzew Łódź U19 attack 1.27 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 scores more
49%
level
20%
Widzew Łódź U19 scores more
31%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 3 – 1 Widzew Łódź U19

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 beat Widzew Łódź U19 3-1 in Central Youth League on April 14, 2024.