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Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 vs Legia Warszawa U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Legia Warszawa U19
Legia Warszawa U19
9/9/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U1926%
×Draw19%
Legia Warszawa U1955%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
1.68
Legia Warszawa U19
2.46

Legia Warszawa U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 52 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
1.67
Legia Warszawa U19
2.58

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
2.33
Legia Warszawa U19
1.69

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 ↓

Legia Warszawa U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 or draw
45%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 or Legia Warszawa U19
81%
Draw or Legia Warszawa U19
74%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 wins by 2+
12%
Legia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 1+ goals
81%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 2+ goals
50%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 3+ goals
24%
Legia Warszawa U19 1+ goals
91%
Legia Warszawa U19 2+ goals
70%
Legia Warszawa U19 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 (draw refunded)
32%
Legia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Legia Warszawa U19 away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 attack 1.67 + Legia Warszawa U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.68

Legia Warszawa U19 attack 2.58 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 scores more
26%
level
19%
Legia Warszawa U19 scores more
55%

Legia Warszawa U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Legia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 vs Legia Warszawa U19

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 beat Legia Warszawa U19 1-0 in Central Youth League on September 9, 2023.