Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 1–1 Jagiellonia U19

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

FT

1 – 1

Jagiellonia U19

3/17/2024

Central Youth League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U1936%

×Draw21%

Jagiellonia U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19Expected goals in this matchJagiellonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.98

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

1.83

Jagiellonia U19

1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

1.67

creates per match

1.64

2.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

1.67

Jagiellonia U19

1.64

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

2.33

Jagiellonia U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19+0.00on par

Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 ↓

Jagiellonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 or draw

58%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 or Jagiellonia U19

79%

Draw or Jagiellonia U19

64%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 wins by 2+

19%

Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 1+ goals

84%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 2+ goals

54%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 3+ goals

28%

Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals

86%

Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals

59%

Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Jagiellonia U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 attack 1.67 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Jagiellonia U19 attack 1.64 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 scores more

36%

level

21%

Jagiellonia U19 scores more

42%

Jagiellonia U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jagiellonia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff