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Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 vs Arka Gdynia U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
FT
1 – 2
Arka Gdynia U19
Arka Gdynia U19
8/13/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U1938%
×Draw22%
Arka Gdynia U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
1.86
Arka Gdynia U19
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
1.67
Arka Gdynia U19
1.46

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19
2.33
Arka Gdynia U19
2.05

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19+0.00on par
Arka Gdynia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 ↓

Arka Gdynia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 or draw
60%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 or Arka Gdynia U19
78%
Draw or Arka Gdynia U19
62%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 wins by 2+
20%
Arka Gdynia U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 1+ goals
84%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 2+ goals
55%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 3+ goals
28%
Arka Gdynia U19 1+ goals
85%
Arka Gdynia U19 2+ goals
56%
Arka Gdynia U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Arka Gdynia U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Arka Gdynia U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 attack 1.67 + Arka Gdynia U19 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.86

Arka Gdynia U19 attack 1.46 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 scores more
38%
level
22%
Arka Gdynia U19 scores more
40%

Arka Gdynia U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arka Gdynia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 vs Arka Gdynia U19

Arka Gdynia U19 beat Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 2-1 in Central Youth League on August 13, 2023.