Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sanat Naft vs ZOB Ahan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
12/25/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 14Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Sanat Naft36%
×Draw30%
ZOB Ahan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanat Naft
1.04
ZOB Ahan
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 116 away

creates per match

Sanat Naft
1.01
ZOB Ahan
0.91

allows per match

Sanat Naft
1.09
ZOB Ahan
1.07

finishing

Sanat Naft+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanat Naft ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sanat Naft or draw
66%
Sanat Naft or ZOB Ahan
70%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
64%

Winning margin

Sanat Naft wins by 2+
14%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sanat Naft 1+ goals
65%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
28%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
9%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
63%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
26%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
51%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanat Naft at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 89 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanat Naft attack 1.01 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

ZOB Ahan attack 0.91 + Sanat Naft defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sanat Naft scores more
36%
level
30%
ZOB Ahan scores more
34%

Sanat Naft at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanat Naft vs ZOB Ahan

ZOB Ahan beat Sanat Naft 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 25, 2023.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.