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Sanat Naft vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
9/23/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sanat Naft63%
×Draw26%
Shahrdari Astara11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanat Naft
1.50
Shahrdari Astara
0.47

Sanat Naft creates 219% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

creates per match

Sanat Naft
1.29
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Sanat Naft
0.53
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Sanat Naft+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanat Naft ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sanat Naft or draw
89%
Sanat Naft or Shahrdari Astara
74%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
37%

Winning margin

Sanat Naft wins by 2+
34%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sanat Naft 1+ goals
78%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
44%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
19%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
37%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
8%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
85%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanat Naft at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanat Naft attack 1.29 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Sanat Naft defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sanat Naft scores more
63%
level
26%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
11%

Sanat Naft at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanat Naft vs Shahrdari Astara

Sanat Naft beat Shahrdari Astara 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 23, 2024.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.