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Sanat Naft vs Persepolis FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
3/6/2022Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 21Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Sanat Naft25%
×Draw29%
Persepolis FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanat Naft
0.83
Persepolis FC
1.24

Persepolis FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 116 away

creates per match

Sanat Naft
1.01
Persepolis FC
1.39

allows per match

Sanat Naft
1.09
Persepolis FC
0.66

finishing

Sanat Naft+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanat Naft ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sanat Naft or draw
54%
Sanat Naft or Persepolis FC
71%
Draw or Persepolis FC
75%

Winning margin

Sanat Naft wins by 2+
8%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sanat Naft 1+ goals
56%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
20%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
5%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
71%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
35%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
35%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanat Naft at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 89 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.66 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanat Naft attack 1.01 + Persepolis FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.83

Persepolis FC attack 1.39 + Sanat Naft defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sanat Naft scores more
25%
level
29%
Persepolis FC scores more
46%

Persepolis FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Persepolis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Sanat Naft 2–0 Persepolis FC

Sanat Naft beat Persepolis FC 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.