Sanat Naft 1–2 Naft Masjed Soleyman: Result & Stats

Sanat Naft

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Naft Masjed Soleyman

9/5/2022

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 5Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Sanat Naft44%

×Draw31%

Naft Masjed Soleyman25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanat NaftExpected goals in this matchNaft Masjed Soleyman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.77

Sanat Naft

1.14

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.77

Sanat Naft creates 48% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 74 away

1.01

creates per match

0.45

1.09

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sanat Naft

1.01

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.45

allows per match

Sanat Naft

1.09

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanat Naft ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sanat Naft or draw

75%

Sanat Naft or Naft Masjed Soleyman

69%

Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman

56%

Winning margin

Sanat Naft wins by 2+

19%

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sanat Naft 1+ goals

68%

Sanat Naft 2+ goals

32%

Sanat Naft 3+ goals

11%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

54%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

18%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)

64%

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanat Naft at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 89 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanat Naft attack 1.01 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Sanat Naft defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sanat Naft scores more

44%

level

31%

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

25%

Sanat Naft at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff