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Sanat Naft vs Malavan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Malavan
Malavan
3/13/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 23Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Sanat Naft39%
×Draw31%
Malavan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanat Naft
1.07
Malavan
0.89

Sanat Naft creates 20% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sanat Naft
1.01
Malavan
0.69

allows per match

Sanat Naft
1.09
Malavan
1.13

finishing

Sanat Naft+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanat Naft ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sanat Naft or draw
70%
Sanat Naft or Malavan
69%
Draw or Malavan
61%

Winning margin

Sanat Naft wins by 2+
16%
Malavan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sanat Naft 1+ goals
66%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
29%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
9%
Malavan 1+ goals
59%
Malavan 2+ goals
22%
Malavan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
57%
Malavan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanat Naft at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 89 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanat Naft attack 1.01 + Malavan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Malavan attack 0.69 + Sanat Naft defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sanat Naft scores more
39%
level
31%
Malavan scores more
30%

Sanat Naft at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Sanat Naft 1–1 Malavan

Sanat Naft and Malavan drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on March 13, 2023.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.