Sanat Naft 1–0 Fajr Sepasi: Result & Stats

Sanat Naft

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fajr Sepasi

M. Seifi 22'

10/3/2024

Azadegan League · Round 5Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sanat Naft41%

×Draw32%

Fajr Sepasi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanat NaftExpected goals in this matchFajr Sepasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.79

Sanat Naft

1.05

Fajr Sepasi

0.79

Sanat Naft creates 33% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 83 away

1.29

creates per match

1.04

0.53

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Sanat Naft

1.29

Fajr Sepasi

1.04

allows per match

Sanat Naft

0.53

Fajr Sepasi

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanat Naft ↓

Fajr Sepasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sanat Naft or draw

73%

Sanat Naft or Fajr Sepasi

68%

Draw or Fajr Sepasi

59%

Winning margin

Sanat Naft wins by 2+

16%

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sanat Naft 1+ goals

65%

Sanat Naft 2+ goals

28%

Sanat Naft 3+ goals

9%

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

55%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

19%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)

60%

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanat Naft at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.82 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanat Naft attack 1.29 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.05

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.04 + Sanat Naft defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sanat Naft scores more

41%

level

32%

Fajr Sepasi scores more

27%

Sanat Naft at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

M. Seifi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff