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Sanat Naft vs Aluminium Arak — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
12/8/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 12Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Sanat Naft37%
×Draw32%
Aluminium Arak31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanat Naft
1.02
Aluminium Arak
0.90

Sanat Naft creates 13% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sanat Naft
1.01
Aluminium Arak
0.71

allows per match

Sanat Naft
1.09
Aluminium Arak
1.02

finishing

Sanat Naft+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanat Naft ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sanat Naft or draw
69%
Sanat Naft or Aluminium Arak
68%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
63%

Winning margin

Sanat Naft wins by 2+
14%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sanat Naft 1+ goals
64%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
27%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
8%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
59%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
23%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
55%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanat Naft at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 89 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanat Naft attack 1.01 + Aluminium Arak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Aluminium Arak attack 0.71 + Sanat Naft defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sanat Naft scores more
37%
level
32%
Aluminium Arak scores more
31%

Sanat Naft at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Sanat Naft 1–2 Aluminium Arak

Aluminium Arak beat Sanat Naft 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.