San Viator 1–5 Portugalete: Result & Stats

San Viator

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Portugalete

5/3/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Campo San Viator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Viator16%

×Draw23%

Portugalete60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San ViatorExpected goals in this matchPortugalete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.75

San Viator

0.78

Portugalete

1.75

Portugalete creates 124% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 98 away

0.59

creates per match

1.56

1.94

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

San Viator

0.59

Portugalete

1.56

allows per match

San Viator

1.94

Portugalete

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Viator+0.00on par

Portugalete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Viator ↓

Portugalete →

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

San Viator or draw

40%

San Viator or Portugalete

77%

Draw or Portugalete

84%

Winning margin

San Viator wins by 2+

Portugalete wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

San Viator 1+ goals

54%

San Viator 2+ goals

18%

San Viator 3+ goals

Portugalete 1+ goals

83%

Portugalete 2+ goals

52%

Portugalete 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

San Viator (draw refunded)

21%

Portugalete (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Viator at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Portugalete away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.98 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Viator attack 0.59 + Portugalete defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Portugalete attack 1.56 + San Viator defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

San Viator scores more

16%

level

23%

Portugalete scores more

60%

Portugalete at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff