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San Viator vs Deusto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Viator
San Viator
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Deusto
Deusto
12/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Campo San Viator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Viator25%
×Draw27%
Deusto49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Viator
0.95
Deusto
1.46

Deusto creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

San Viator
0.59
Deusto
0.98

allows per match

San Viator
1.94
Deusto
1.31

finishing

San Viator+0.00on par
Deusto+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Viator ↓

Deusto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Viator or draw
51%
San Viator or Deusto
73%
Draw or Deusto
75%

Winning margin

San Viator wins by 2+
9%
Deusto wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

San Viator 1+ goals
61%
San Viator 2+ goals
25%
San Viator 3+ goals
7%
Deusto 1+ goals
77%
Deusto 2+ goals
43%
Deusto 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

San Viator (draw refunded)
33%
Deusto (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Viator at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Deusto away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Viator attack 0.59 + Deusto defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.95

Deusto attack 0.98 + San Viator defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Viator scores more
25%
level
27%
Deusto scores more
49%

Deusto at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deusto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Viator vs Deusto

Deusto beat San Viator 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Campo San Viator in Vitoria-Gasteiz.